NEW DELHI: Byelections are generally known for sending the ruling party candidates as law-makers. The grand bypolls of 2021 confirmed this trend once again. However, as far as individual candidates are concerned, the bypolls witnessed reversals on a majority of the seats.
Seat-wise anti-incumbency mandate
Of the three Lok Sabha seats (Mandi in Himachal Pradesh, Khandwa in Madhya Pradesh and Union Territory (UT) of Dadra and Nagar Haveli) which went to bypolls, two witnessed reversals.
The BJP lost Mandi to Congress while retaining Khandwa. Dadra and Nagar Haveli, which was held by independent MP late Mohan Delkar, was wrested by the Shiv Sena.
Of the 30 assembly seats which faced by-elections, 18 witnessed reversals while 12 saw the political parties retaining them.
The BJP and the Congress lost six assembly seats each.
The BJP lost Jubbal-Kotkhai in Himachal Pradesh, Hangal in Karnataka, Raigaon in Madhya Pradesh and Dhariawad in Rajasthan, all to the Congress; and Dinhata and Santipur in West Bengal to Mamata Banerjee-led TMC.
The six seats on which the Congress lost are Marinai and Thowra in Assam, Prithvipur and Jobat in MP, all to the BJP; and Mawryngkneng and Rajabala in Meghalaya to NPP.
Besides the BJP and the Congress, the other parties which lost the remaining six seats were BPF in Gossaigaon and AIUDF in Bhabanipur in Assam; JD(S) in Sindgi in Karnataka; independent candidates in Mawphlang and Tuiral in Meghalaya and Mizoram respectively; and TRS in Huzurabad in Telangana.
The BJP, however, won seven assembly seats – it wrested Bhabanipur in Assam from AIUDF, Marinai and Thowra in Assam from the Congress, Sindgi in Karnataka from JD(S), Prithvipur and Jobat in MP from the Congress and Huzurabad in Telangana from the ruling TRS.
The Congress wrested Jubbal-Kotkhai in Himachal Pradesh, Raigaon in MP and Dhariawad in Rajasthan – all from the BJP.
The BJP either won or lost the assembly bypolls. It failed to retain any seats.
However, the Congress succeeded in retaining four seats in its kitty – Fatehpur and Arki in Himachal Pradesh, Deglur in Maharashtra and Vallabhnagar in Rajasthan.
Overall, the BJP won eight seats while the Congress did better by registering victory on nine seats.
TMC wrested two seats from the BJP – Dinhata and Santipur in West Bengal while retaining another two – Khardaha and Gosaba.
JD(U) retained Kusheshwar Asthan and Tarapur in Bihar.
Four parties retained one seat each – YSRCP in Badvel in Andhra Pradesh, UPPL in Tamulpur in Assam, INLD in Ellenabad in Haryana and NDPP Shamator-Chessore in Nagaland.
State-wise anti-incumbency factor
Regarding the anti-incumbency sentiments, the ruling BJP in Himachal Pradesh lost not just the Mandi Lok Sabha constituency but also the three assembly seats.
Similarly, the ruling BJP in Haryana lost the Ellenabad assembly seat to INLD, which retained it.
In another reversal, the ruling TRS in Telangana lost the Huzurabad assembly seat to the BJP.
Pro-incumbency mood
The ruling BJP under Himanta Biswa Sarma and its ally UPPL won all the five assembly seats which went to bypolls.
TMC under Mamata Banerjee won all the four assembly seats.
Similarly, the ruling NDA – BJP’s two allies NPP and UDP – won three seats in Meghalaya.
The JD(U) under chief minister Nitish Kumar won both the assembly seats – Tarapur and Kusheshwar Asthan – in Bihar.
The Congress under the chief ministership of Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan won both the assembly seats – Dhariawad and Vallabhnagar.
The ruling YSRCP retained its assembly seat of Badvel in Andhra Pradesh. The ruling Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition partner Congress retained Deglur assembly seat in Maharashtra.
The ruling MNF in Mizoram won the Tuirial assembly seat, while the ruling NDPP won the Shamator-Chessore seat in Nagaland.
Mixed incumbency states
There are some states which witnessed mixed incumbency factor.
For example, in MP, the ruling BJP won one Lok Sabha (Khandwa) and two assembly seats (Jabot and Prithvipur) but also lost the Raigaon assembly seat to the Congress.
The ruling BJP again in Karnataka lost the Hangal assembly seat but it also won the Sindgi seat.